By Guy Plater
The third quarter of 2015 was one of the worst quarters for global equity markets since the financial crisis of 2008. As the year begins to draw to a close, now is the time to reflect on a period which has seen the markets become increasingly complicated and uncertain.
From the allure of emerging markets to the drop in global growth and its consequent effect on yields, there will be no shortage of considerations when thinking about how to manoeuvre the markets in 2016.
Coming into vogue: yields on the rise
Recent figures hint at an economic growth rate that has stagnated from its previously solid level. Now, concerns over the global economy and fears for potential corporate profit drops have seen growth slump to a rate probably better described as sluggish. A consequence of this has been the gradual increase in the spread of high quality corporate bond yields over those of gilts as the year has progressed; gilts, it seems, are going out of vogue. This change represents an opportune chance for those who have trimmed holdings in corporate bonds to increase their weightings back to the levels they held towards the end of the 2013-14 financial year.
It’s important to remember however that the aforementioned present slowdown may be short-lived – it’s possible that in the months ahead we will see a cyclical improvement in global growth, helped by the US economy returning to the solid level of expansion outlined above. And with growth in the US economy gaining speed, it is likely that the postponed interest rate hike will take effect in the near future. Countries such as Turkey and Indonesia, who have unbalanced economies with large current account deficits, will struggle. However, unlike the taper tantrum which caught markets by surprise, the Fed is clearly signposting the raising of rates and will raise them more slowly than in previous cycles. This stronger growth will benefit emerging markets that export goods and services to the US.
It’s important to be active
If there’s a degree of uncertainty around how cyclical the global growth trajectory may transpire to be, it’s small fry compared to the unpredictability involved in another asset class that has become important this year – emerging markets. In recent months, valuations have looked increasingly attractive in this asset class compared to how they have looked in the past – and while valuations alone should never be enough to trigger an investment, they are useful as a possible entry point to the sector and they certainly assist efforts towards portfolio diversification.
It’s crucial that active and accomplished managers are used when a first foray into emerging markets is made. Because this particular investment universe can at times be volatile, trustees need an experienced and skilled manager to navigate the perils and avoid the pitfalls. Information doesn’t flow easily in these markets, and it takes a long time to price it in – and even when information does reach the investor, there’s not always a guarantee that it’s reliable. And, perhaps most importantly, it almost goes without saying that political situations on the ground are often more uncertain – and even dangerous – in some emerging markets than they are in mature markets.
For all of these reasons, a traditional bottom-up approach to investing is just not going to cut it. Rather than analysing each stock on its merits, a top-down approach is necessary instead. As 2016 looms and investors begin to make fresh decisions about which asset classes to plump for, the macroeconomic factors at work in the increasingly attractive newer markets must not be ignored.
A brave new funds world
One final trend in equities is worth considering. In a nutshell, markets have become more dynamic, complex and unpredictable post-2008, by which we mean they change a lot – a bit like Imelda Marcos having a footwear conundrum. This summer, some managers countered volatility with instruments such as Diversified Growth Funds (DGFs), and it was a great opportunity to see them in action during more testing times. Out of the 36 we monitor at Punter Southall, only 14 performed well between January and September of this year. Even worse, during Q3, only four of the funds had a positive figure. As a result, it is important to bear in mind that synthetic protection may well prove to be insufficient to protect funds in these hyper-volatile times. Now, these are not all absolute return funds and markets were dire, but it certainly divides the men from the boys and gives us lots of questions to ask the managers.
Asset managers have also been busy developing new funds as a replacement for corporate bonds, despite yields picking up recently. So step onto the stage Multi Asset Credit funds, Absolute Return Fixed Income, and Strategic Bond funds. Haven’t we been here before with DGFs? Well watch this space.
Guy Plater is a senior consultant at Punter Southall Investment Consulting
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