By Tassos Stassopoulos
Domestic consumption in emerging markets is estimated to grow from about $12trn a year to $53trn in 2035, making it one of the biggest investment opportunities in the world today.
These trends can’t be adequately analysed from a desk in London, New York or even Hong Kong. We believe the best way is to carry out the same kind of research that consumer companies use before they enter a new market—face-to-face interviews with emerging-market consumers to discover their hopes, dreams and aspirations.
This “grassroots research” provides valuable insights and often demolishes many myths about emerging-consumer investing. Since 2011, we have so far spent a total 130 days travelling to emerging markets. Here are the seven themes we believe will be key trends for anyone wanting to capture the emerging consumer market:
Change will come from the bottom of the social pyramid. Many investors assume that their best opportunities lie in the emerging middle classes. We found low-income consumers tend to be more optimistic and, typically, experience a higher-percentage wage increase than the middle classes.
‘Golden years’ will be about value for money. Consumption trends of the older generation in EM will be very different. Our research highlighted the rise of a younger generation, better educated than their parents and cheaper to employ. Consequently, many consumers over the age of 45 will focus on good value products and services such as retirement insurance or cheaper healthcare.
Refrigerators reveal consumers’ social status. Food is the biggest consumption category and changes as consumers become more affluent. Looking into fridges helps predict how diets will change as consumers progress along the socioeconomic spectrum. The first fridge is typically used to store vegetables and leftover food. Middle class fridges contain indulgence items such as ice-cream, chocolates and beer. More affluent households are health conscious with low-fat milk, probiotics and fresh juices. This shows how we can plot the trajectory of food consumption in particular countries.
Road building will drive a healthcare revolution. India plans to spend five trillion rupees over the next two years building roads. The Healthcare sectors could be indirect beneficiaries as many rural workers currently can’t afford to forgo salaries for long journeys along poor roads. Quicker travel will reduce obstacles to accessing a doctor.
Consumer connectivity will move from East to West. Mobile phones and payments systems are proving a powerful agent of change. In countries like China they are transforming the retail industry, as customers “showroom” (try clothes in shops and complete purchases online). We expect China to emerge as a global leader in e-commerce and mobile payments solutions.
Urbanisation is no longer a one-way street. Grassroots research uncovered how social and economic behaviour in remote villages is affected by those who’ve move away. Those left behind in villages can now keep in touch with and get influenced by urban migrants through cell phones, Skype and visits. And the internet allows for items to be shipped anywhere.
Electricity can be a catalyst for women’s empowerment. According to the World Bank, less than 40% of all adult women in the 12 largest emerging markets (excluding China) participate in the labour force. This represents a vast untapped resource. While education is important in empowering women, other factors such as a stable supply of electricity can be overlooked. Improved access to electricity enable labour saving devices for instant a fridge to store food rather than buying it every day free up time for women to earn their own money. This will influence household funds spending as women tend to spend more on long-term purchases or children’s education.
Tassos Stassopoulos is portfolio manager — emerging consumer at AllianceBernstein
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