It will take at least 10 years for the United Kingdom to officially separate from the European Union (EU), at which point London will lose its standing as a central financial hub in Europe, according to the former director general of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Speaking to delegates at the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA) annual conference, Pascal Lamy (pictured) said the “sheer complexity” of the negotiations around the UK’s divorce from the EU’s 27 other member states meant it would take at least a decade for it to be truly independent.
Lamy (pictured) also said while he thought Brexit was “likely” to happen, there was a chance it might not proceed at all because of both the “Everest amount” of problems to solve beforehand and the financial impact it could have on the economy.
“I’ve seen no serious study that says this will be good for the British economy,” he added.
He said there was “zero” possibility of a convergence of a hard Brexit with remaining in the internal market and as a result, the UK would lose its ability to passport financial products while the City of London would cede its placing as a central financial ecosystem.
“Financial products will have to go to other places than the City of London,” he said, adding the cities of Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris had already begun to prepare to take London’s crown.
Lamy also said he believed the 27 other members of the EU would take a harsh approach to negotiations because while they did not want to punish the UK, they did not want to be punished by their electorate either.
He added: “We are in a world where I don’t like what is happening, but it is incredibly interesting – so good luck.”
